Are you prepared for $8.00/gallon gas?

If you're expecting oil and natural gas prices to drop back to "normal" after Katrina/Rita hurricane repairs are completed, don't count on it. This one-two punch to our nation's energy-producing center has worsened a worldwide gas and oil crisis that has been growing for years.

Diminishing supplies of cheap, abundant oil and gas represent an unprecedented challenge for our way of life. It threatens the very things we take for granted: an ever- growing economy, current modes of transportation, and cheap imported food and other goods.

How can our community respond to this challenge and soften its local impacts?

World oil production is peaking

U.S. oil production peaked 35 years ago in 1970. As a result, we now import 65% of the oil we need to maintain our lifestyle. Worldwide discoveries of oil peaked even before that, in 1962. The world now consumes four barrels of oil for every one discovered. Many experts consider production will peakâ- reach its maximum and begin to declineâ- within the next five years. After that, oil will be more difficult and expensive to extract. Available supply will fall below global needs.

Why is cheap oil important to us?

Cheap, abundant oil and gas have been the foundation of our society. Oil provides nearly 40 percent of our primary energy and 70 percent of our transportation fuel. It powers our cars, trucks, trains, planes, and ships. It heats our homes and factories. It fuels power plants. It's the raw material for plastics, fabric, and cosmetics. Almost everything we have or do relies on fossil fuels.

The U.S. is not the only country hungry for more oil. Thanks to fossil fuel fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, global food production has tripled in the last century. That in turn fueled an equal increase in world population, bringing a soaring demand for our energy- intensive lifestylesâ- witness India and China.

How will Peak Oil affect our economy?

"Peak oil represents the most serious and immediate challenge to our prosperity and security."
     – Australian legislator Andrew McNamara

As our economy grows, so does our need for oil. With global demand now approaching the available supply, competition for what remains is driving oil prices ever higher.

We will see rising costs for everything - electricity, gasoline, heating. All products, including food, will be more expensive to produce, transport, and store (refrigerate). Airlines and the tourist industry will be hard hit.

How will our economy grow as our most important energy source declines? It won't. Expect inflation and a contracting economy. In the worst case, we may see "resource wars," hoarding, irregular deliveries, rationing, power outages and wide-spread unemployment.

Isn't something being done about this?

Most experts say we should develop all the alternative energy sources - solar, wind, hydroelectric, biofuels and hydrogen. But even all of these taken together will be unable to take the place of portable, cheap oil, especially in the short term. Building a new energy infrastructure will take decades - and a lot of energy. In a new government-sponsored report, Peaking of World Oil Production, former V.P. of Arco, and RAND senior energy analyst Robert L. Hirsch states:

"The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past 'energy crisis' experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis."

Matthew Simmons, founder of an international energy investment banking firm and advisor to the Bush administration, believes that Hurricane Katrina may well be remembered as the start of "our great energy war." He stated in October 2005:

"We're almost at the verge of having real energy shortages. We could be looking at $10-a-gallon gas this winter... We are in a deep energy hole. We must create a Plan B to ensure the future of energy, or we won't have a future of energy."

Right now, there is no â"Plan B." Current U.S. energy policy is to procure as many worldwide sources of oil as possible and to subsidize highly-polluting coal and nuclear power for electricity. Nothing is being done to require greater efficiency for energy-consuming products, invest in rail infrastructure, or embark on vigorous alternate-energy development programs.

What can YOU do?

There are things you can do to cut your energy costs and to cut your dependency on fossil fuels. Reduce car trips, share rides, initiate energy-saving measures at home and work, start a garden. Consider solar electricity for your home and take advantage of rebate programs. Store food, water, and emergency supplies in the event of food and energy disruptions. Educate yourself, family and friends so you can make good choices about other actions to take.

What can WE do? Re-localize.

Individual changes will help but we can and must do more. We need to re-localize our economy - to meet our essential needs locally rather than depending on long chains of supply from all over the world.

Relocalization is the opposite of globalization - it shortens the distance between producer and consumer. We need to buy and produce more locally-grown food, buy from local retailers rather than chains and big-box stores, and re-develop manufacturing capacity rather than relying on goods imported from around the world.

One of the most important things you can do now to re-localize is to "Buy local." Come home to eat and shop!

"Re-localize now, ahead of the rush. Don't wait to begin forming networks of mutual aid."
     – Richard Heinberg, author of Powerdown

Living Well in a Changing World

The Alliance for a Post-Petroleum Local Economy is a grassroots group concerned about the repercussions of declining oil and natural gas in Nevada county. APPLE is a local forum where citizens are gathering to develop practical solutions to the challenges ahead. We are working to reduce fossil fuels dependency and to help build are more self-reliant local economy.

People are developing projects for energy, transportation, food, community gardens, emergency preparedness, economy and business. We are sharing information about alternative power sources, locally-grown foods, transportation alternatives, and initiatives by like-minded groups in other areas. APPLE coproduces "Peak Moment," a weekly TV show on community responses to a changing energy future. It airs on NCTV cable channel 11 Thursdays at 7 pm and Tuesdays at 3:30 pm.

APPLE is building alliances with local organizations, government, and businesses to share information and engage other groups in creating their own local sustainable solutions.

APPLE meetings are the third Wednesday at 6:30 pm. Call 2653014 or check the website for location and topic. E-mail info@apple-nc.org to receive APPLE's e-mail notice with upcoming events, carpools, and event location.

Info Voicemail phone: 530-265-3014 E-mail: info@apple-nc.org Website: www.apple-nc.org P.O. Box 163, Grass Valley, CA 95945

FOR MORE INFORMATION

Books

• The Party's Over and Powerdown, Richard Heinberg
• Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons
• The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler

Websites (solution oriented)

• postcarbon.org
• communitysolution.org
• peakoilaction.org
• beyondpeak.com